PRU-14 Sabah: Hanya Menghitung Hari Tersungkurnya Parti Warisan



Mandat yang diberikan rakyat Sabah pada parti yang  sedang memerintah akan tamat tempoh pada jun 2018. Maknanya, mandat itu hanya berbaki 12 bulan lagi, sebelum pilihan raya, untuk meminta mandat semula daripada rakyat.

Pada PRU-14, sejumlah 995,000 pengundi bakal menjadi hakim kepada parti yang sedang memerintah, 51 peratus daripadanya, sudah cukup bagi parti kerajaan meneruskan mandat untuk sepenggal lagi.


Secara praktikalnya, setiap pilihan raya, sekitar 80 peratus daripada hakim-hakim itu membuat keputusan.

Jika peratusan sebanyak itu, maka pada PRU-14, mereka yang benar-benar menjadi hakim berjumlah 796,000; 51 peratus daripadanya berjumlah 405,960 hakim. 

Namun berasaskan  simulasi matematik, parti Barisan Nasional akan mendapat undi sejumlah 421,000; parti warisan 178,000, pakatan Harapan 136,000 dan bakinya parti-parti dalam gabungan 61,000 undi.

" Berasaskan taburan undi, parti Barisan Nasional akan menang 24 kawasan parlimen dan 55 kawasan Dun."

Walaupun, berasaskan angka, parti Warisan Sabah menduduki urutan ke-2, namun, tiada seorang pun calon parti itu akan menang, demikian juga parti-parti gabungan.

Pembangkang akan mendapat kerusi daripada calon-calon Pakatan Harapan, khususnya di kawasan majoriti kaum cina dan dua kawasan majoriti KDM.

Nampak gayanya parti Barisan Nasional Sabah tetap sebagai Simpan Tetap Barisan Nasional.

M.Rakunman
18.05.2017


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